2024 Geico 500 best bets: NASCAR odds, picks, predictions at Talladega

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On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the GEICO 500.

You can tune into the superspeedway race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.

There’s no clear favorite with superspeedway racing, and that’s reflected on the odds board.

FanDuel has a whopping five drivers tied with the best odds at +1000. They include Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski.

Byron won the last superspeedway race at Daytona, with Blaney winning last year’s Fall race at Dega.

I’m going with a handful of underdogs and darkhorses for my favorite bets in the Geico 500.

Geico 500 best bets

To win: Ross Chastain (+1800, ESPN Bet)

A big aspect of superspeedway racing is aggression. We see drivers like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski get to the front and control the race because they’re willing to make moves other drivers won’t.

Overall, Ross Chastain might be the most aggressive driver in the Cup Series. He’s ruffled a few feathers along the way, but he’s established himself as a top driver. That driving style will benefit him at Talladega.

Chastain won the Spring race at Talladega in 2022 and nearly won this year’s Daytona 500. He’s led 14+ laps in the last two Daytona races and led a race-high 36 laps in the 2022 Fall Dega race.

He’s hungry after getting wrecked on the last lap last week. Look out for Chastain to contend for another Talladega win on Sunday.

Kyle Busch top-3 finish (+500, bet365)

Kyle Busch had an impressive start to the season, leading laps in the Daytona 500 and nearly winning at Atlanta. It’s been downhill since then, but Busch has a great chance of a strong finish at Talladega.

Last season, Busch avoided the late-race carnage to capture his second career win at Talladega. He also scored a top-three finish in the 2022 Talladega Spring race.

Between Daytona and Talladega, Busch has led laps in 12 straight superspeedway races. He does a good job running near the front and avoiding the big crash.

The value is there for Busch to score a great finish. It’d be his third straight top-three finish in the Talladega Spring race.

Kyle Busch has fared well in the past on superspeedway tracks. Getty Images

Erik Jones top-5 finish (+400, Caesars)

Some drivers know how to score a good finish on the superspeedways, which applies perfectly to Erik Jones’ career at Talladega.

Over the last eight Talladega races, Jones has five finishes of sixth or better. That’s very impressive, considering one wreck can take you out of contention. And these aren’t fluke performances where he got lucky.

Jones led 25 laps in the Spring 2022 race and held the lead on the final lap. He returned in the Fall and led 23 laps. He manages to run up front and keep his nose clean.

He won the 2018 Summer race at Daytona with Toyota. He’s back with the manufacturer and could produce another top-five finish at Dega.

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Todd Gilliland top-10 finish (+300, FanDuel)

I mentioned Kyle Busch’s great start to the season at Daytona and Atlanta. Through those races, Todd Gilliland led the Cup Series with 74 laps led. It didn’t lead to a strong finish, but that could change at Talladega.

Gilliland crashed out of his first start at the track. He’s finished seventh, 10th, and 12th in the three races since. Two more spots, and we’d be talking about a three-race streak of top-10 finishes.

We’re getting an excellent price for a driver who has led laps at superspeedways and produced multiple top-10 finishes.

It could be another strong performance at Talladega for Gilliand and the No. 38 team.

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