Maverick Odds: How to bet Thunder vs Mavericks Game 3

Discerning what trends are game specific versus series specific is a delicate art. As Dallas and OKC prepare to face off and decide who take a 2-1 series lead, we do well to ponder what to gleam from what we have seen so far – and whether it is likely to be a repeatable trend or a lighting in a one game bottle. In the regular season – with its larger sample size – stats and metrics simply matter more. In the playoffs, potential wagers need to pass the eye test and watching the game is a must. Being a box score bettor in the playoffs is true folly.

What have seen so far? A hot shooting night from each team? First, OKC blistered the nylon in Game 1 and Dallas returned the favor in Game 2. The catalysts for each were clear. SGA’s trips to the foul line in the first half of Game 1 and Luka Doncic’s hitting outside shots in the first quarter of Game 2 set the tone in each game, respectively.

Let’s do our best to find some low hanging fruit, scanning the props and odds for value – while keeping in mind that every game will be different but with recurring themes coursing through them.

Game Details

Fixture: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks | May 11th, 2024, 2:30 PM CST

Venue: American Airlines Center | Dallas, TX

Outcome Odds

Spread: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)

O/U 218

Mavs ML: -142

Odds up to date as of 5:15 AM CST from DraftKings

Player Props

Kyrie Irving over 22.5 points (-112)

Jalen Williams over 19.5 (-112)

Derrick Jones Jr over 1.5 (-115)

Kyrie Irving’s distillation to his most pure, positive and productive form has revealed something few saw coming when Dallas acquired him. He is the ultimate shapeshifter on the court. Need him to rescue the team with a 30 point second half heater? Check. Need him to pull off an exquisite John Stockton game out of nowhere that allows a bevy of obviously locked in teammates to continue to make shots, he will gladly do that. Need to rebound and lock-in defensively, he’ll be in their jersey with enough gas in the tank for fourth quarter hero moments. The dude is amazing. Don’t let the Game 2 point total scare you here. Irving’s line is deflated a bit from that 9 point effort and 22.5 is too low. Book it.

Jalen Williams is the primary regular season road riser for the Thunder. We lean into that here and count on him to score 20 in a hostile envioronment.

Derrick Jones Jr has been blocking shots as he steps behind players. He did it to Paul George more than one and had two blocks in Game 1. Nothing in Game 2 but we lean back in the notion that Jones will find his way to 2 stocks (steals + blocks) in this one.

Play of the Day

Same Game Parlay = Dallas Mavericks Moneyline + Doncic over 30.5 points + Irving over 22.5 points

Feel free to sidestep this recommenation and take the more conservative -142 line on the Mavs Moneyline. Yet it feels like a “stars carry the day” sort of game waiting to happen. Doncic will find his way to 31, Irving to 23, and Dallas to a 2-1 series lead.

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