Thunder vs. Mavericks pick against the spread, over/under for Game 3

After splitting the first two games of their second-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will square off in Game 3 Saturday afternoon as the series shifts to Texas. The Thunder opened up the matchup with a 1-0 win but Dallas battled back in Game 2 to level the series and raise the stakes for this contest.

The Thunder remain clean on the injury front. Maxi Kleber and Olivier-Maxence Prosper are out for Dallas, while Luka Doncic is listed as questionable. Doncic has been dealing with a knee injury for most of the playoffs but is expected to be available.

The Mavericks are 2-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 218. Dallas is -142 on the moneyline while Oklahoma City is +120.

Thunder vs. Mavericks, 3:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Mavericks -2

The Thunder are 17-8 straight up after a loss this season, while the Mavericks are 32-22 after a win. Dallas is 17-14 ATS as a home favorite and won two of its three home games against the Clippers in the last series. Oklahoma City has been solid on the road all season, going 26-17 straight up. However, the Thunder are just 21-21-1 ATS as the road side and 7-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.

As long as Doncic does suit up, I believe the Mavericks will continue to find success after they defended better in Game 2. Dallas’ offense was also flowing better and there should be enough carryover in front of a favorable crowd to give the Mavericks a 2-1 lead in this series.

Over/Under: Over 218

Game 1 went under this total while Game 2 went over. All four regular-season matchups between these teams went over this number. Dallas’ offense was out of sync in Game 1 but found its rhythm in Game 2. That was likely the reason the total went over. Even though the Mavericks are just 18-26 to the over at home, the Thunder are 24-18-1 to the over as the road team. I think there will be enough offense to surpass this number.

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