This is how Man United can beat Man City and win the FA Cup

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Manchester United haven’t looked very competitive against Manchester City this season. How might they change that in this Saturday’s FA Cup final? We have some ideas! Catherine Ivill/Getty Images

Manchester City: probably going to beat Manchester United on Saturday!

For the FA Cup final (Saturday, 9 a.m. ET on ESPN+), Man City are a minus-700 favorite to win the tournament for the second year in a row, per ESPN Bet. You’d have to bet $700 on City just to win $100. When you take Man United’s odds into account (plus-300) and then remove the vig (essentially the fee the sportsbook charges you in order to make a bet), it comes out to an 83% chance that City lift the trophy and a 17% chance that United pull the upset.

For comparison: in the Champions League final — between the dominant Champions League team of all time and the fifth-place team in the Bundesliga — Real Madrid are 73% favorites, with Dortmund garnering a 27% chance of taking home their second European Cup. These were roughly the same odds when City and United met in last year’s FA Cup final.

Manchester City brought in €826 million of reported revenue last year, per Deloitte, and Manchester United brought in €746 million — but despite the relatively similar financial strength, the FA Cup final is a true David-vs.-Goliath situation on the field.

• Watch live on ESPN+: Man City vs. Man United (FA Cup final)

It’s very unlikely that Man United will win on Saturday, but it’s not impossible. Play this match 10 times and United would probably win once, maybe twice. Such is the nature of a low-scoring sport with a bouncing ball that outlaws the use of your hands.

So, if we were to get that 1-in-10 or 2-in-10 outcome on Saturday, what might it look like? Here are five ways Manchester United could actually beat Manchester City and win the FA Cup.

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