Tropical Storm Alberto getting closer to Mexico. See spaghetti models

Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named tropical storm of the season, began dumping rain on the coasts of Texas and Mexico as it approached the Gulf Coast, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today and tornadoes are possible through Wednesday evening across parts of Texas. The storm is expected to weaken rapidly once it moves inland and dissipate over Mexico Thursday or Thursday night.

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The storm is bringing heavy rains, coastal flooding and gusty winds along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico through the rest of the day, the NHC said.

➤ Tropics watch, June 19: Tropical Storm Alberto expected to form today, 1st named storm of 2024 hurricane season

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 415 miles north of the center.

Heavy rain is forecast to extend well north of the center of the storm, spreading into portions of central Texas, according to AccuWeather.

Alberto is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain across South Texas and into northeastern Mexico, with up to 20 inches possible in the higher terrain areas, NHC forecasters said.

Storm sequel on horizon?Alberto targets Texas, ‘featherweight’ system nears Florida

Flash and urban flooding is expected, along with new and renewed river flooding. Storm surges of up to four feet are forecast for Galveston Bay and from Sargent, Texas to Sabine Pass, the NHC said.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

Tropical Storm Alberto: What you need to know

Location : About 170 miles east of Tampico, Mexico and 305 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas

: About 170 miles east of Tampico, Mexico and 305 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph

40 mph Movement : West-southwest at 9 mph

: West-southwest at 9 mph Pressure : 995 mb

: 995 mb Next advisory: 8 p.m. EDT

Watches, warnings issued across Florida, Texas, Gulf Coast

For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.

Tropical storm warnings:

The Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Tecolutla.

How strong is Tropical Storm Alberto and where is it going?

At 5 p.m, EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located about 305 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas, near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 95.3 West.

Alberto is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph, but a westward motion is expected to resume soon and continue for the next day or so. On this track, the center of Alberto is expected to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.

Some slight strengthening is possible this evening or tonight before the center of Alberto reaches land. Weakening is expected once the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over Mexico Thursday or Thursday night.

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 415 miles north of the center.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Alberto

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

➤ Track Potential Tropical Cyclone One

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Alberto

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nievo leon and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.

What impact could Potential Tropical Cyclone One have and what areas could be affected?

Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Sargent, Texas, to Sabine Pass, Texas: 2-4 feet Galveston Bay: 2-4 feet Mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas, to Sargent, Texas: 1-3 feet Sabine Pass, Texas, to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana: 1-3 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Rainfall : Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. Wind : Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through early Thursday.

: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through early Thursday. Tornadoes : A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas. Surf: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?

What do tropical storm watches, warnings from NHC mean?

What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

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